Blindside : how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics / Francis Fukuyama, editor. - Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, c2007. - vi, 198 p. ; 24 cm.

"An American Interest Book."

Includes bibliographical references (p. [173]-182) and index.

The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama -- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner -- Cases: looking back -- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes -- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz -- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale -- Cases: looking ahead -- The once and future DARPA / William Bonvillian -- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin -- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett -- Forecasting -- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall -- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert -- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / Mitchell Waldrop -- What could be -- Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook -- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett -- American scenarios -- A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Anne Applebaum, Ruth Wedgwood, Bernard-Henry Levy, Peter Schwartz, Josef Joffe, and Francis Fukuyama -- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama -- Contributors -- Index.

"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher.

9780815729907 (cloth : alk. paper) 0815729901 (cloth : alk. paper)

2007027757


Emergency management--United States.
International relations.

ა.შ.შ. საერთაშორისო ურთიერთობები საგანგებო სიტუაციების მენეჯმენტი

HV551.3 / .B57 2007

363.34/7
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