000 03200cam a22003494a 4500
001 14920210
003 Ge_GIPA
005 20180314141247.0
008 070709s2007 dcu b 001 0 eng
010 _a 2007027757
020 _a9780815729907 (cloth : alk. paper)
020 _a0815729901 (cloth : alk. paper)
040 _aDLC
_cDLC
_dDLC
043 _an-us---
050 0 0 _aHV551.3
_b.B57 2007
082 0 0 _a363.34/7
_222
245 0 0 _aBlindside :
_bhow to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics /
_cFrancis Fukuyama, editor.
260 _aWashington, D.C. :
_bBrookings Institution Press,
_cc2007.
300 _avi, 198 p. ;
_c24 cm.
500 _a"An American Interest Book."
504 _aIncludes bibliographical references (p. [173]-182) and index.
505 0 _aThe challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama -- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner -- Cases: looking back -- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes -- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz -- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale -- Cases: looking ahead -- The once and future DARPA / William Bonvillian -- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin -- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett -- Forecasting -- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall -- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert -- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / Mitchell Waldrop -- What could be -- Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook -- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett -- American scenarios -- A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Anne Applebaum, Ruth Wedgwood, Bernard-Henry Levy, Peter Schwartz, Josef Joffe, and Francis Fukuyama -- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama -- Contributors -- Index.
520 _a"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher.
650 0 _aEmergency management
_zUnited States.
_92814
650 0 _aInternational relations.
_92815
653 _aა.შ.შ.
_aსაერთაშორისო ურთიერთობები
_aსაგანგებო სიტუაციების მენეჯმენტი
700 1 _aFukuyama, Francis.
_9343
856 4 1 _3Table of contents only
_uhttp://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip0722/2007027757.html
906 _a7
_bcbc
_corignew
_d1
_eecip
_f20
_gy-gencatlg
942 _2ddc
_cBK
955 _asb39 2007-07-09
_isb39 2007-07-09
_aaa19 2007-07-16
_aps10 2007-10-11 1 copy rec'd., to CIP ver.
_asp10 2007-11-07 copy 2 added
999 _c807
_d807